Despite being amongst the world’s most destructive extreme weather events, tropical cyclones are relatively rare. In a given year, only around 80-100 tropical cyclones form globally, most of which never make landfall. In addition, accurate global historical records are scarce, making it hard to predict where they will occur and what actions Governments should take to prepare.
To overcome this limitation, an international group of scientists involving Ivan Haigh from the University of Southampton developed a new approach that combined historical data with global climate models to generate hundreds of thousands of “synthetic tropical cyclones.”
By creating a very large dataset with these computer-generated cyclones, which have similar features to natural cyclones, the researchers were able to much more accurately project the occurrence and behaviour of tropical cyclones around the world over the next decades in the face of climate change, even in regions where tropical cyclones hardly ever occur today.
Many of the most at risk locations will be in low-income countries. Countries where tropical cyclones are relatively rare today will see an increased risk in the coming years, including Cambodia, Laos, Mozambiqueand many Pacific Island Nations, such as the Solomon Islands and Tonga. Globally, Asia will see the largest increase in the number of people exposed to tropical cyclones, with additional millions exposed in China, Japan, South Korea and Vietnam.
Dr. Ivan Haigh, Associate Professor at the University of Southampton, said:
“Of particular concern is that the results of our study highlight that some regions that don’t currently experience tropical cyclones are likely to in the near future with climate change”
“The new tropical cyclone dataset we have produced will greatly aid the mapping of changing flood risk in tropical cyclone regions”
The study could help governments and organisations better assess the risk from tropical cyclones, thereby supporting the development of risk mitigation strategies to minimise impacts and loss of life.
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